Maine’s personal income composition hasn’t remained static over the past decade. Income distribution patterns can shift in response to economic changes, policy interventions, and demographic trends. So how has Maine’s income distribution evolved over the past decade?

To find out, we turn to the data. The same BEA estimates used in part one and part two extend back to 2012, providing over a decade of information. This final part of the series uses that data to see how personal income patterns have changed across Maine households.

Looking at the full time period, Maine’s overall distribution of personal income remained relatively stable from 2012 through 2019, with some year-to-year variation (Figure 1). The pandemic years, however, brought visible changes to these patterns.

Figure 1. Share of Total Personal Income by Quintile

The most pronounced shifts occurred in the transfer receipts component of personal income. Federal and state stimulus payments, along with expanded social assistance programs and refundable tax credits, directed a larger share of transfer receipts toward lower- and middle-income households in 2020 and 2021.

By 2022, the distribution among higher-income groups had started to revert to pre-pandemic trends, but lower-income groups continued to receive a slightly elevated share of transfer receipts.

Figure 2 shows how the distribution of transfer receipts shifted over time, with clear departures from historical patterns during the pandemic years.

Figure 2. Share of Transfer Receipts by Income Quintiles

A shift in the distribution of transfer receipts is particularly evident when comparing 2019 to subsequent years (Figure 3). Compared to 2019, the share of transfer receipts to the lowest income quintile increased in 2020 and 2021, remaining above their 2019 share through 2022. The share of transfer receipts to the highest income quintile decreased in 2020, before returning closer to its 2019 share by 2022. There were also changes to the share of transfer receipts for the middle three income quintiles, though these were less dramatic than for the highest and lowest income groups.

This three-part series has revealed several important patterns about how personal income flows through Maine:

First, the distribution of personal income varies significantly by component in Maine. The vast majority of dividends and interest income flow to the highest income households, but transfer receipts are more evenly distributed across income levels.

Second, Maine’s distribution of personal income appears more balanced than in many other states. While high-income households still receive the largest share of total income, middle-income households in Maine account for a comparatively greater share than their regional and national counterparts.

Third, income distribution patterns can shift in response to policy interventions. The pandemic years demonstrated how targeted programs can direct resources to lower- and middle-income households, though the durability of such shifts depends on program design and duration.

Looking ahead, economic forecasts (including from Maine’s Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission and Moody’s) anticipate that Maine will see high levels of growth in the transfer receipt component of personal income in the coming years, due largely to Maine’s demographic trends. Faster growth in this component relative to other components could have implications for the overall distribution of total personal income in Maine.

The data and methodology used to produce these state-level estimates are similar to those used to produce national-level income inequality statistics. Most of the data comes from the Current Population Survey, which collects income information from households. To improve accuracy, BEA also incorporates data from other federal agencies (such as the Internal Revenue Service), and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Finally, all income figures are aligned with BEA official state-level income totals.

Full technical documentation and data files are available on the BEA website.